Posted July 4, 2024
Even if Joe Biden’s performance in the first Presidential Debate was due to a ‘cold’ or ‘jetlag’, he must go because he has now framed the future of the campaign. In other words, the major issue of the campaign won’t be policy, personality or the record of both men, but ‘Is Biden well enough to be President?’
There have been lots of arguments backing Biden. For example, he has an entourage of advisors to do the heavy lifting or, he had an off night and he’s been better since.
That may all be true but it’s not the point. The point is that every time he is in the media spotlight from now until the Election, the slightest thing that could be considered a ‘senior moment’ will be the story. He may have few such moments, but when he does or does anything that may suggest one, that will be the story and prevent him getting across the messages he wants voters to hear.
Let me explain. Any political campaign will have a simple message to focus on. Candidates need to get that across as often as possible to voters to maximise their chances of getting elected. Say what you want about Donald Trump, he is an expert at getting a message across.
Biden did okay in 2020 but when you see him in those debates and compare them to this year’s one, it’s like chalk and cheese. He has clearly deteriorated over that period and that will make it hard enough for him to focus on a clear message.
When you add to that this new framing around his health and mental ability to perform the role of President until 2029, the Democrats have very little chance of getting their message heard in the same way the Republicans will.
US Elections are always tight. If every second news story is focused on Biden’s health, what chance does he and the Democrats have of convincing swinging voters that they have a superior message, let alone convince them he is in perfect health and will be for the next four years?
